In the Neotropical area of the Río Apatlaco sub-basin (central Mexico), high deforestation can be attributed to urban development, as this area concentrates the highest human population density in Morelos state. The objective of this study was to analyze changes in land use and vegetation in this sub-basin from 2002 to 2012 using geographic information systems. The results show that, over the period of analysis, the main changes occurred in the grassland and coniferous forest. However, in the tropical dry forest (TDF) the annual rate of deforestation (0.13%) was much lower than previously estimated (1.4%), but no recovery took place. It is possible that deforestation of the TDF was halted because the remaining areas with forest remnants were unsuitable for agricultural activities and/or abandonment of such activities has taken place. It is therefore a priority to protect these areas of secondary vegetation that serve as a buffer for conserved areas, allowing their recovery and contributing to their interconnectivity.