Nuclear Autocrats. Political survival strategies and trajectories
Autócratas nucleares. Estrategias y trayectorias de supervivencia política
Author
Niño, César
González, Manuel Camilo
Abstract
In this article it is stated that the possession of nuclear weapons in authoritarian regimes can become a guarantee for the political survival of the leaders and their elite. Based on process-tracing analysis of four representative case studies (North Korea, Iraq, Iran, and Libya), this article argues that nuclear programs shape devices in which regime change is understood as a threat to the security. These have been successful when authoritarian regimes have turned their resources into nuclear weapons or when they have accumulated capabilities that create a perception of risk against actors seeking democratization. En el presente artículo se afirma que la tenencia de armas nucleares en los regímenes autoritarios puede convertirse en garantía para la sobrevivencia política de los líderes y su élite. Con base en el análisis de rastreo de procesos de cuatro casos de estudios representativos (Corea del Norte, Irak, Irán y Libia), este articulo expone que los programas nucleares configuran dispositivos en los que el cambio de régimen se entiende como una amenaza a la seguridad. Estos han sido exitosos cuando los regímenes autoritarios han transformado sus recursos en armas nucleares o cuando han acumulado capacidades que generan una percepción de riesgo frente a los actores que buscan la democratización.
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