Sea surface temperature in continental and insular coastal Colombian waters: observations of the recent past and near-term numerical projections
Sea surface temperature (SST) simulation for the 1970-2007 period and its projection up to 2035 was carried out with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for the Colombian Caribbean Sea (CCS) and the Colombian Pacific Basin (CPB). Spatial bias using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Sets (ICOADS) and Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) for 1982-2007 shows an adequate representation of surface characteristics in both marine study regions, especially on the CPB. The 1970-2007 period's deviation measures reveal a good fit between ICOADS data and simulated SST. The spatial distribution of linear multi-annual regression (ICOADS 1970-2007) evidences a similar positive trend in both regions (0.01ºC yr-1). Differences in the spatial distribution of trends between the two regions (ROMS 2008-2035) prescribe that general warming of CCS will be less (0.01ºC yr-1) than that of CPB (0.02ºC yr-1). The average SST trend in waters close to continental and insular coastal stations of CCS and CPB obtained from ICOADS (1970-2015) are 0.016 and 0.013°C yr-1, respectively. The average trend in the same stations obtained from the projection using ROMS (2008-2035) is 0.025°C yr-1 for CCS and 0.015°C yr-1 for CPB. The SST projection for 2008-2035 in the CCS shows the highest SST increase slope in waters near Punta Gallinas and in the CPB it is evidenced in waters near Malpelo Island.